Globale Erwärmung Tote WindhoseSeite 2/2

Herr Hüter verschiebt die Ausgangslage ein wenig. Nicht die etablierten Hurricane Forscher haben zu beweisen, dass kein Zusammenhang besteht zwischen Hurricanes und Globaler Erwärmung, sondern die Klimamodellierer haben zu beweisen, dass es ein solcher Zusammenhang gibt.

Das hatte man im Frühjahr versucht, indem man z. B. Trenberth, der bisher noch keine wissenschaftliche Arbeit über Hurricanes veröffentlicht hat, plötzlich beim IPCC als Lead-Autor eingesetzt wurde, was wiederum zum Rücktritt von Landsea geführt hat. Trenberth hatte kurz vorher in Harvard dies öffentlicht behauptet.

Die Auseinandersetzung ging darum, ob man Hurricanes in die Computerberechnungen und Voraussagen mit einbeziehen kann.

Die WMO sieht übrigens keinen wissenschaftlich korrekten Nachweis für einen solchen Zusammenhang:

global community of tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters as represented at the 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones of the World Meteorological Organization has released a statement on the links between anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change and tropical cyclones, including hurricanes and typhoons.

The ten consensus statements are as follows:
Consensus Statements by International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones-VI (IWTC-VI) Participants
1. Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point.
2. No individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change.
3. The recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.
4. Tropical cyclone wind-speed monitoring has changed dramatically over the last few decades, leading to difficulties in determining accurate trends.
5. There is an observed multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones in some regions whose causes, whether natural, anthropogenic or a combination, are currently being debated. This variability makes
detecting any long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity difficult.
6. It is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone peak wind-speed and rainfall will occur if the climate continues to warm. Model studies and theory project a 3-5% increase in wind-speed per
degree Celsius increase of tropical sea surface temperatures.
7. There is an inconsistency between the small changes in wind-speed

projected by theory and modeling versus large changes reported by some observational studies.
8. Although recent climate model simulations project a decrease or no change in global tropical cyclone numbers in a warmer climate, there is low confidence in this projection. In addition, it is unknown how tropical cyclone tracks or areas of impact will change in the future.
9. Large regional variations exist in methods used to monitor tropical cyclones. Also, most regions have no measurements by instrumented aircraft. These significant limitations will continue to make detection of trends difficult.